| So you've played a few games of Texas Hold'em | | | | That got a little complex towards the end in order to |
| poker and you've probably watched a few big hands | | | | show you why you would fold, but in reality all you |
| played by the pros via a televised table at the World | | | | needed to know was that the pot odds were |
| Poker Tour or World Series of Poker and you wonder | | | | considerably smaller than the draw odds so your best |
| how these guys decide when to hold'em and when to | | | | play should be to fold. Lets look at a slightly more |
| fold'em in the big money situations in a way that keeps | | | | complex example but this time we'll leave out the |
| them consistently winning. Well there are a few hands | | | | explanation of positive or negative expectation. |
| where a well practiced and savvy "gut" read on a | | | | Again you're the big blind, stacks are all the same at |
| player does tip the decision, and for that you simply | | | | $100, blinds are $5/$10, one player makes a standard |
| need to play and gain experience but most of the time | | | | raise to $30 everyone folds to you and you decide to |
| the play is guided by the odds. | | | | call the remaining $20 with 9c & 8c making the |
| Every game of chance (blackjack, backgammon, etc.) | | | | pot $65. The flop comes down 7c, 10h, Ac. You check |
| in which a player can gain an "edge" is dependent on | | | | and your opponent moves all in for his remaining $70 |
| the players knowledge of the odds. When the odds | | | | now what? For a host of reasons such as the raise |
| are in your favor put your money in and when they're | | | | preflop, the type of player they are, hands you've seen |
| not don't put your money in. Sure that's easy enough | | | | them play before, etc. you figure he has a big ace |
| you think; but we don't all have a head for advanced | | | | such as AK or AQ. So we're pretty sure we know |
| mathematics like poker superstar Chris Ferguson: with | | | | what we need to beat, lets look at our hand. |
| a mother who has a doctorate in math, a father who | | | | We have an open ended straight draw, meaning that |
| is a professor in game theory and theoretical | | | | we have four cards to the straight and only need one |
| probability and our own PH.D. in computer science, but | | | | of the cards at either end to make it, in this case a 6 |
| that's o.k.. The truth is that if during a hand of Hold'em | | | | or Jack will do it. We also have a draw to any club in |
| poker you feel you need to apply the level of math | | | | order to fill out a flush which we figure won't get |
| that plots space shuttle trajectory you should probably | | | | beaten by a bigger flush because assuming we're right |
| fold anyway, and the good news is that all you need is | | | | about the opponent having a big ace means he can't |
| a grade five or six level of math to make a solid | | | | have two clubs back because the Ac is on the board. |
| decision on what play you should make. | | | | Lets count the outs there are 9 clubs remaining in the |
| Lets set the stage for the explanation with a basic | | | | deck and an additional three 6's or three J's to make |
| hand example: you're the big blind with Ac & Ks, | | | | our straight. (you only count the three 6's and J's that |
| one player calls everyone else folds. For the sake of | | | | aren't clubs because the the 6c and Jc have been |
| simplicity everyone has the same stack of $100 and | | | | counted in all ready as flush outs) So that's 15 outs. |
| the blinds are $5/$10, so the pot now contains $25 | | | | Now again because it's an all-in call we're faced with |
| (your blind+one caller+small blind) the flop comes down | | | | we can leave out the rule of two and use the rule of |
| Qd, Jh,3h. You check as the first to act again for the | | | | four because there will be no further betting. So rule of |
| sake of simplicity your opponent bets all-in for his last | | | | four is 15 (our outs) times 4 = 60% but wait one |
| $90 making the pot now $115 and $90 to call. Now we | | | | second before you grab your chips. When dealing with |
| have to compare two kinds of odds to see if we | | | | high numbers of outs and two cards left to come |
| should call or fold. | | | | there is one extra consideration to be made which is |
| We can clearly see our straight possibility if we can hit | | | | "Solomon's Rule". Solomon's rule is this, with two cards |
| a 10, and again for simplicity we'll decide that that's our | | | | left to come apply the rule of four then subtract from |
| only chance to win the hand. So step one is counting | | | | that figure the number of outs you have over eight. In |
| your "outs". Outs are the cards you could draw to give | | | | our example we have 15 outs which is 7 outs greater |
| you the superior hand, and there are four 10's in a deck | | | | than 8 so take our rule of figure of 60 and subtract |
| so we are said to have four outs in this situation. Okay, | | | | the 7 extra outs and a more accurate figure is 53%, |
| we know our outs what next? | | | | so we can see that we will hit our hand 53% of the |
| Introducing the rules of two and four! The rule of two | | | | time so that should be a call. |
| is this: "multiply your number of outs by two to get an | | | | Some things to be aware of when applying this are; |
| approximate % of times you will draw one of your out | | | | one, you will have a better result as you develop an |
| cards with one card left to come". The rule of four is | | | | ability to read your opponents hand. In our second |
| this. "multiply your number of outs by four to get an | | | | example If we were wrong about the opponent having |
| approximate % of times you'll draw one of your out | | | | a big ace and instead he had a KcQc then all our flush |
| cards with two cards left to come". Pretty simple hey? | | | | outs and our three Jacks would give him the better |
| This is not an exact % (the exact % for one card to | | | | hand leaving us to draw one of the four sixes or a |
| come with our four outs would be 8.51 and on and on | | | | scenario where we pair the 9 or 8 and he misses |
| into smaller decimal places but for practical application | | | | everything, not situations you want to be in for all the |
| 8% is a good enough figure to work with). So back to | | | | marbles. Two, slim edges like our second example |
| our example we use the rule of four here because the | | | | would always be a call in a cash game as if you loose |
| opponent is all-in there for if we call we get to see | | | | you just go back to the dealer for a fresh stack, lick |
| both cards left to come without further betting. Okay | | | | your wounds, and go right back to looking for a spot |
| we have a 16% chance (expressed as a ratio 5.25:1, | | | | with any edge you can get because cash game play |
| which means for every 6.25 times we play this hand | | | | is all about your long run expected value and any |
| out we'll win once ) of hitting a 10 and winning the hand. | | | | positive edges will add up over the years. Where as in |
| This is our odds to win the hand known as our "draw | | | | a tournament once you loose your stack it's over, so |
| odds". | | | | you might decide to lay a hand with a very small |
| Knowing our draw odds is only half the info though. | | | | advantage down in hopes to find bigger advantages |
| Next we need to know our "pot odds". The pot as we | | | | to play for the whole wad, or be content to slowly |
| said is now $115 and will cost us $90 to make the call. | | | | steal back the money you lost by picking up small |
| Expressed in a ratio is 115:90 or 1.28:1 (for our purposes | | | | uncontested pots. Also remember that in our two |
| in the heat of the moment you could work with a | | | | examples we were facing all-in bets after the flop in |
| ballpark figure so 90 goes into 115 about 1 and a third | | | | order to simplify the situation in most hands you will |
| times so ballpark=1.3:1) and that's our pot odds. | | | | use the rule of two far more often as you would |
| Now basically we need to have a pot odds ratio that's | | | | normally have to figure your odds after the flop with |
| bigger than the draw odds ratio to make this a positive | | | | only the turn to come and then you would have to |
| expectation call (positive/negative expectation means | | | | re-figure them (if you missed the turn) during the |
| that if you add up every time you ever make this call | | | | following betting round before the river with different |
| in this situation will you show a gain or loss on | | | | amounts for the pot and bet. |
| average)? So lets total it up: if we know we will lose | | | | In close I'll say this, This is not going to morph into a |
| this hand about 5 out of 6 times (again a usable | | | | poker superstar in time for next years World Series of |
| ballpark to simplify instead of 5.25 out of 6.25) then | | | | Poker, but it is an important weapon to have in your |
| that equals 5 loses times $90 each for a total of | | | | quiver, along with dozens of others you will acquire on |
| -$450 compared with the 1 time out of 6 we win the | | | | your poker journey, and hopefully this has helped to |
| $115 pot for a total of $115. So at the end of the six | | | | start you down the path of playing "correct poker" and |
| hands we would show a loss of $335 or an average | | | | that with it you won't need as much good luck, just a |
| loss of $55.83 per hand, so in a nutshell this is a | | | | little less bad luck. |
| negative expectation call so you'd be best to fold. | | | | |